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The conservation of vultures, critically endangered keystone scavengers, is vital for maintaining ecosystem health, nutrient cycling, human health and economic loss. This study focuses on modeling the habitat suitability of vultures in Central India (Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Gujarat) using the MaxEnt Species Distribution Model (SDM), incorporating environmental and bioclimatic variables. Key predictors such as elevation, slope, NDVI, land use/land cover, and bioclimatic variables were analyzed to assess their influence on vulture distribution. Results indicated a strong association of vulture presence with mid and high elevation forested areas, moderate slopes, and high NDVI zones, signifying their ecological reliance on well-vegetated and less-disturbed landscapes. Bare areas, grasslands, and tree-covered regions showed the highest suitability, while croplands and settlements were least preferred. The most suitable areas were seen in Eastern and Northern Madhya Pradesh, along the western ghats in Maharashtra, Aravalli range in Rajasthan and Junagadh-Gir forest region due to high vegetation, hilly terrain and favorable climatic conditions. Future habitat changes were projected under two climate change scenarios—SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5—for 2041–2060 and 2060-2080. The projections consistently indicated a net loss in suitable habitats, especially under high-emission scenarios, with significant declines predicted in critical zones such as the Indo-Gangetic plains, eastern Rajasthan, and central Madhya Pradesh. Gains were scattered, limited in extent, and located mostly in southern Gujarat. A vulnerability assessment combining climate risk, forest loss, and anthropogenic pressure (Global Human Modification Index) was conducted through a weighted overlay, identifying regions as high, moderate and low risk zones. The findings underscore the urgency of integrating climate-adaptive and landscape-specific conservation strategies for vultures, emphasizing proactive planning in both current and potential future habitats. This study highlights the effectiveness of combining species distribution modeling with vulnerability assessment for long-term avian conservation under changing climatic and land-use conditions.
Keywords: Indian Vultures, Habitat Suitability Prediction, MaxEnt Modeling, Climate Change, Vulnerability.
