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This thesis conducts a detailed spatial-temporal analysis of rice production and climate variability in Uttar Pradesh (UP), India, with the aim of understanding the impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity. Through the development of a comprehensive geospatial database, spatiotemporal trends in rice production across various agroclimatic zones are examined. Historical rice production data, meticulously curated from authoritative government sources, are integrated with climate data obtained from reputable sources such as the Climatic Research Unit Time-Series and India Meteorological Department. Geospatial and statistical analyses, including Z Score Normalization, correlation, and regression analyses, are employed to explore the relationship between rice yield and climate variables. Additionally, a method for detecting regime shifts in time series data is utilized to identify potential disruptions in agricultural productivity trends. The findings reveal a positive trend in rice yield over time, albeit with variations across different agroclimatic zones, highlighting vulnerabilities and opportunities for agricultural development. Recommendations include the promotion of climate-smart agricultural practices, improved water management, and the adoption of resilient crop varieties to enhance sustainability and productivity amidst changing climatic conditions. Overall, this research underscores the importance of integrating climatic considerations into agricultural strategies for informed planning and policy-making. By addressing the challenges posed by climate change, UP can ensure food security and sustainable agricultural development for future generations.
Keywords: rice production, GIS, spatial-temporal analysis, climate change, agricultural productivity.
