ANNOUNCEMENTS
This research examines the evolution of Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) projects within the Voluntary Carbon Market (VCM), with particular focus on price and volume dynamics before and after the Kyoto Protocol's expiration. Analyzing market data spanning 2015-2023, the study identifies distinct pre-expiry (2015-2019) and post-expiry (2020-2023) trends. Pre-Kyoto expiry, AFOLU credits showed moderate price volatility (USD 3.2-5.1) with significant volume fluctuations (13.1-50.7 MtCO₂e), while post-expiry data reveals structural price increases (USD 5.4-10.14) and extreme volume volatility (36.4-227.7 MtCO₂e). The research identifies price-specific factors (co-benefit valuation, certification stacking), volume-specific factors (land tenure issues, verification constraints), and shared factors (corporate climate commitments, integrity initiatives) influencing market dynamics. The transition from Kyoto to Paris Agreement frameworks fundamentally reshaped the AFOLU landscape by expanding eligible project types, enhancing methodological approaches, and deepening integration with national climate strategies. This transition marked a shift from Kyoto's limited AFOLU recognition to Paris Agreement's comprehensive inclusion of nature-based solutions. The findings contribute to understanding AFOLU carbon market evolution and provide practical insights for stakeholders navigating the complex post-Kyoto voluntary carbon landscape.
Key words: AFOLU (Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use), Voluntary Carbon Market (VCM), Kyoto Protocol, Paris Agreement, Price volatility, Volume fluctuations.
